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James Chanos, the contrarian investor who predicted the collapse of Enron, insists that the economic boom in China is headed for a fall.
Chanos built his fortunes predicting the collapse of Enron and other high-flying companies whose stories were too good to be true, and now Chanos is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
Chanos is warning that China"s hyper-stimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict.
He said that its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 â€" or worse.â€
He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than8 percent.
As America"s pre-eminent short-seller he bets big money that companies’ strategies will fail â€" Chanos"s narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and domestic consumption.
Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is not the only skeptic on China. But he is among the most prominent and vocal.
For all his record of prescience â€" in addition to predicting Enron"s demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world"s biggest banks â€" his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should therefore be ignored.
He has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much. “The Chinese,†he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, “are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.â€
The New York Times
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